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Hello everyone! The holidays are in full swing—shopping lists, parties, and festive get-togethers are everywhere. But don’t worry, I’ve got your back with the latest mortgage updates. Let’s get started!

Read time: ~4 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was LOW. Rates are in mid to high 6’s for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the low 6% range

Winter Is Here—Why This Season Could Be the Best Time to Buy ❄️🏠

Lately, I’ve been seeing more and more posts from agents and lenders proclaiming that NOW is the best time to buy. While I generally agree—considering inventory is growing, competition is cooling, and we’ve moved past election season—we still need to be cautious.

As sales professionals, we sometimes paint every moment as the perfect buying opportunity, and that can come across as pushy or inauthentic. I believe it’s best to earn trust by focusing on real facts and genuine insights.

With that said, is it really the best time to buy, especially when it comes to mortgage rates?

Historically, mortgage rates have been kindest during the winter months. Data from Freddie Mac’s monthly averages, dating back to 1972, show that February has consistently been the best month for lower rates. December and January aren’t far behind, and they often present great opportunities as well. In contrast, the busy spring buying season typically brings higher rates, and October has traditionally been rough for borrowers.

If this winter follows the same pattern, it might genuinely be the perfect moment to act—lower rates, more choices, and fewer competing buyers.

Surprise Twist: Mortgage Rates Improve on Stronger Jobs Report 😅

Typically, when we get a solid jobs report—especially one that beats expectations—mortgage rates jump higher. But last Friday’s report flipped the script. Despite posting better-than-expected job gains, mortgage rates actually inched lower. Let’s break down why:

1.  Close Enough to Expected: We added 227,000 new jobs compared to a 200,000 forecast. That’s a decent beat, but not huge enough to shock the market.

2.  Minor Revisions: Everyone braced for a big revision to October’s tiny 12,000 job figure, but it only bumped up to 36,000. This small tweak didn’t send investors scrambling.

3.  Unemployment Rate Edges Up: The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. While that’s still low, any increase can hint at a market slowdown since unemployment rates don’t typically reverse direction quickly without reason.

All of these details nudged the market to think: “Hey, maybe the Fed will cut rates in December.” Right now, there’s an 86% chance of a 0.25% cut at their next meeting, and mortgage rates are already responding positively to that possibility.

Now you might be wondering: “how do we add 227,000 jobs but see unemployment rise?” The answer lies in the two different surveys used to measure employment:

1. The Establishment Survey: This survey polls businesses and is best known for reporting the number of non-farm jobs added each month—like the 227,000 we just saw.

2. The Household Survey: This survey interviews about 60,000 households to derive data on the unemployment rate and also tracks job gains or losses from a consumer perspective. Unlike the establishment survey, it can be more volatile. Last month, while the establishment survey showed modest gains, the household survey reported a 355,000 loss in jobs!

This discrepancy highlights the household survey’s susceptibility to sampling errors due to its smaller sample size. It’s a question worth asking: if the household survey is so pivotal for determining the unemployment rate, why not improve its accuracy and reduce these mixed signals?

All Eyes on Wednesday: Will the CPI Report Move Rates?

As I’ve mentioned before, big changes in mortgage rates often follow key reports on jobs and inflation. This Wednesday, December 11th, we’ll get the November CPI inflation numbers, and it’s poised to be a market mover!

Currently, annual inflation is at 2.6%, still a bit above the Fed’s 2% goal. If Wednesday’s data shows inflation climbing even higher, we might see mortgage rates nudge into the high 6% range and the odds of a Fed rate cut could shrink. But if inflation takes a step down, mortgage rates could improve and slide into the mid-6% range 🙂.

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