The Rise of Crypto: Bitcoin and Real Estate

Weekly Mortgage Market Update 11.25.24

Hello everyone! With Thanksgiving upon us, it's the perfect moment to reach out to those who matter most and share our gratitude for their presence in our lives. Life isn't always easy, but taking time to reflect on what we're thankful for is so important.

Now, let's jump into the latest updates in the mortgage world!

Read time: ~4 minutes

Rates ended FLAT compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the high 6’s/low 7’s for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the mid to high 6’s.

Will a 2025 Influx of Homes Drive Prices Down?

Each month, my team and I are fortunate to connect with over 100 potential buyers and sellers. These conversations give us valuable insights into the mindset of those considering entering today's housing market.

A common theme we've been hearing is: “I'm going to wait until early 2025 to list or buy.”

Being an economics enthusiast, I'm always eager to understand the motivations behind people's financial decisions. The reasons we frequently hear include:

  • “Rates are too high. I believe they'll drop at the start of the year.”

  • “There's no decent inventory right now. I'll wait until more options become available.”

  • “No one wants to buy or sell during the holidays. I'll hold off until after the new year.”

  • “I think rates will lower once the new administration takes office, so I'm holding off until 2025.”

What's intriguing is that this tendency to "wait and see" is more common among sellers than buyers at the moment. This leads us to anticipate a potential surge of new listings hitting the market at the beginning of the year. While more inventory might seem positive, we need to consider the effects of a large number of homes entering the market simultaneously.

As professionals in the housing market, we understand that home prices have remained high largely due to a lack of affordable inventory. But what happens if a wave of new homes hits the market in early 2025? If mortgage rates stay elevated and buyers remain cautious, properties could linger on the market longer. This might compel sellers to lower their asking prices to stay competitive, potentially driving prices down.

I'm not trying to raise alarms before there's clear cause for concern. My goal is to prompt us to think carefully about the potential market dynamics ahead. These are the honest conversations we should be having with clients considering selling soon. The market is evolving, and this isn't the time to aim for top-dollar without a solid strategy.

Advise your clients to price their homes competitively right from the start to facilitate quicker sales. Otherwise, they might find their properties sitting on the market, leading them to wonder in frustration, “Why isn't my home selling?”

Key Takeaway: The "wait-and-see" approach is becoming more common. If many people decide to list their homes at the start of 2025, we could face increased competition among sellers. This surge in inventory may prompt price reductions to attract buyers, potentially driving overall prices down.

The Rise of Crypto: Bitcoin and Real Estate

If you've been paying attention lately, you've probably noticed that Bitcoin is soaring, nearing an all-time high of $100k! While some people remain skeptical about cryptocurrencies, it's becoming clear they're here to stay. In fact, Trump is making bold moves by planning to establish a U.S. Bitcoin Reserve and a Crypto Advisory Council. So, if you think crypto is a passing fad that's likely to fade away, think again.

Consider this: 57% of crypto owners in the U.S. are millennials—those between the ages of 27 and 42, which is prime homebuying age! Overall, 40% of Americans own cryptocurrencies, highlighting its growing adoption.

I often hear colleagues in our industry say that crypto can't be used to buy a home, but that's simply not true. Just last month, my branch closed two loans where the buyers used crypto to purchase their homes! Cryptocurrencies are becoming a legitimate form of payment, and the real estate industry needs to adapt to serve this expanding group of buyers.

As professionals, it's our responsibility to stay ahead of emerging trends. Don't hesitate to discuss crypto with your clients—many are unaware that these digital assets can be used for significant purchases like real estate. By educating them, you can help clients realize that their crypto assets could be the key to buying their dream home. If you don't, someone else who is more informed will.

Key Takeaway: Crypto is rapidly gaining traction as a preferred investment platform, especially among young Americans. It's becoming increasingly clear that for this demographic, crypto is a significant asset. As real estate professionals, it's essential to educate your clients about how they can leverage their crypto holdings to purchase a home!

Mortgage Rates Show Signs of Stabilizing

Mortgage rates have been extremely volatile since early October, with increases nearing a full percentage point. This sharp fluctuation has been unsettling for many prospective buyers and sellers.

As we've discussed previously, mortgage rates are intimately connected to the bond market, which responds to economic data, inflation trends, and global events. Lately, rates kept rising without any obvious triggers, causing frustration as the situation seemed to worsen without clear justification.

Fortunately, things began to calm down last week. The average 30-year mortgage rate stayed almost identical to the week before, indicating that the market is finding some equilibrium.

Although we're not seeing significant declines in rates, this stability is the most we can hope for in the immediate future. For rates to drop further, we'll need to observe weaker economic indicators and a reduction in inflation over the next few months.

Two Ways My Team & I Can Help

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