A “Goldilocks” Moment for Mortgage Rates

Hello everyone! We’re barely into this new week, and the mortgage and real estate world is already buzzing. I’m here to break down the latest headlines and what they could mean for you.

Let’s jump right in!

Read time: ~4 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the high 6% to low 7% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the mid 6% range.

A “Goldilocks” Moment for Mortgage Rates

Just a week ago, I was practically pleading with the mortgage gods to stop the bleeding in our industry. The new year kicked off with rates inching toward the mid-7% range, and it felt like they might keep climbing. Thankfully, we finally got a little relief!

Over the past week, several key economic reports—like PPI, CPI, initial jobless claims, and retail sales—came in weaker than anticipated, paving the way for lower mortgage rates. (Remember: weaker economic data generally nudges rates down, although it also points to a slowing economy.) By the end of the week, we saw rates improve by about 0.25% in some loan scenarios.

I’ll admit, it’s a bit unsettling to be rooting for softer economic data just so we can see rates drop. But really, nobody wants a full-blown recession. What we’re hoping for is that elusive “soft landing,” where inflation cools, interest rates follow suit, and the economy avoids a major downturn.

The real question is whether this trend of slowing growth and cooling inflation will keep up. If it does, there's a decent chance we’ll continue to see mortgage rates ease downward.

Want a Real Estate Crystal Ball? Follow the Jobs

My team and I meet a lot of first-time buyers who tell us they’re waiting for a housing crash before jumping in. One of them recently asked, “Is the Las Vegas bubble about to burst?” and my response was simple: Follow the jobs.

Just look at what’s happening in Southern Nevada right now:

• Brightline West could bring up to 35,000 jobs (both construction and indirect).

• Warner Bros. Studios is expected to create around 18,000 direct and indirect jobs if fully realized.

• Oakland A’s Ballpark could add 8,000–10,000 (construction + operational + multiplier).

• Oak View Group’s Entertainment District might total 5,000+ construction jobs plus around 5,000 permanent positions.

• All Net Resort & Arena—if it’s fully financed—aims for 5,000+ jobs between construction and permanent roles.

That’s a wave of economic momentum coming our way! And that’s not even counting all the other jobs that could emerge in the next five years from new retail and mixed-use developments, plus new hotels and casinos opening or expanding—like the Hard Rock, LVXP, KDH Hotel, Dream Las Vegas, and more. Not to mention, Clark County’s population is set to keep growing by 35,000–45,000 net new residents per year into the late 2020s. A big portion—maybe 21,000–27,000 Californians annually—could keep relocating here, especially if living costs remain more affordable than in California.

As cliché as it is, real estate really does hinge on location—and location tracks job growth. I asked that same buyer, “What do you think happens to the housing market when these projects go live and tens of thousands of jobs are created? Are home values more likely to go up or down?” She responded, “They’ll go up, of course.”

The truth is, many first-time buyers talk themselves out of purchasing because of doomsday headlines. But with growing, yet still limited inventory here in Vegas, these new job-creating initiatives could make the market even more competitive.

As real estate pros on the ground, it’s our job to share the facts and help buyers see the opportunities right in front of them. Because I promise, with all this growth on the horizon, today’s opportunities might not be here tomorrow.

Buckle Up—A Wild Week Is Coming

If this past weekend was any indication, we’re in for a rollercoaster of a week with President Trump’s inauguration happening today. Trump has promised bold moves right out of the gate, and any major shift—like introducing his own meme coin—will definitely make waves in the markets. Expect heightened volatility and significant swings, but don’t panic; any drastic changes are likely to be short-lived. Fingers crossed things will settle back to normal once all the inauguration buzz calms down. 🤞

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